In a nightmare the Lithuanian and Polish defense ministers have likely had, taking over the Suwalki Gap would cut off the Baltic states from the rest of Europe and could leave them vulnerable to attack.
Russia's deployment of advanced nuclear-capable missiles (Iskander missiles) to Kaliningrad this week has left Lithuanian and Polish citizens in a state of fear. The missiles’ placement, in a piece of Russian land nestled between the two countries, may be a sign of retaliation. Vladimir Shamanov, the head of the defense committee for Russia's lower house of parliament, said that the move was due to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) military buildup along Russia's borders — specifically the United States troops in Poland. The placement of Russian missiles in Kaliningrad leaves opportunity for Lithuania and Poland to establish a joint strategic defense brigade.
Fear of Russian invasion is a common cause for apprehension in Lithuania, and there is good reason for it. This fear was heightened in recent years due to the invasions of Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014). The Kremlin sees these previous actions as annexing populations it perceives want to be part of Russia again. To the south, Belarus has joined Russia for years in the Zapad games, where Kaliningrad houses thousands of soldiers during these games. The Zapad exercises are one of the four regional training operations for the Kremlin, with Belorussian troops using Kaliningrad as a stage. Russian invasions, and continued exercises simulating an invasion of the east, are what have put Lithuania and Poland on edge.
The Iskander missiles have only intensified this fear derived from recent history in the area. The current deployment is a flashback to October 2006, when Russia sent similar advanced missile systems to the region. It was rumored to be caused by NATO expanding in Eastern Europe, to which the Kremlin stated is a legal right in their sov- ereign territory. Kaliningrad’s geographical surroundings are where the fears truly derive from. The so-called Suwalki Gap — a 60-mile long Polish-Lithuanian border — stretches from Kaliningrad to Russia's closest ally, Belarus.
In a nightmare the Lithuanian and Polish defense ministers have likely had, taking over the Suwalki Gap would cut off the Baltic states from the rest of Europe and could leave them vulnerable to attack.
Lithuania and Poland must take Russia's movements as the inspiration to double-up on their regional alliance. Little things have been done to empower their "soft" power, such as a Lithuanian politician applauding the newly appointed Polish Cabinet as a positive sign for upcoming Polish-Lithuanian relations. Although joint “hard” power has been demonstrated in the past, modern military agreements should be established. Inspiration can come from Dutch Defense Minister, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. Jeanine called upon European Union (EU) officials to create a military Schengen zone, an open-border travel zone for European militaries. NATO has welcomed the Dutch proposal as a way to raise political pressure and create a sense of urgency around further improving interoperability of allied countries. As of 2017, 23 out of 28 EU countries have approved a joint military investment in equipment, research, and developed. Unfortunately, this agreement does not specifically target the Suwalki Gap.
Though a Schengen zone deal involving the movement of militaries is far away from being ap- proved by many countries, it is very much so possible to create a two-state solution. Lithuania and Poland may choose to follow suite with the United Kingdom and France. A month ago, the latter two countries agreed, and are ready, to deploy 10,000 troops by 2020 as a joint military force. Alleviating concern of invasion may require these two Eastern European countries to face the darkest reality. Lithuania and Poland should therefore view the Suwalki Gap as a region of vulnerability, and create a joint military brigade that is specifically trained in facing the possibility of aggressive Russian military movement in the area — thus covering the Suwalki gap.
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